Sunday, February 26, 2017

Moving Forward - Get the conversation going

In case you have not had a chance to see my short scenario describing The Robot Minimum Wage Plan (RMWP) please take a minute to read it to get up to speed on the concepts we are discussing here.

Here are a few comments I have received (thanks) and some commentary about them:

The only route I see is taxation, which means the general public needs to be educated. Tax the sale of the robot, the purchase of the robot, the parts that go into the robot, the use of the robot. But what do we do with the new people coming into the labor market if there are eventually no jobs? 

In my scenario, the taxes are generated by the work the robots do, just as income taxes today are generated by the work people do. The company basically hires the robot and pays it a wage. Part of the wage goes to the RMWP to support displaced workers, and part goes to an income tax to support the country, state, municipality. The rest goes to the company that builds and maintains the robots. Presumably whatever the robot user does with it generates a profit out of which taxes are paid. The bottom line is that we try to maintain a capitalist democracy with a different structure.

As far as new people entering the labor market lets think about that. As I stated in the scenario - The goal is for everyone to eventually receive the wage ... I think this will take time to evolve but the problem is not insurmountable. The initial options for those entering the workplace would be:

  • to further their skills and education to get the best jobs which would probably be in robotics and artificial intelligence. We are already there.  
  • to seek education and training in other areas where wages are higher than the RMWP and robots are not likely to replace workers (High school education could play a role in this process)
  • to work at jobs that have not yet been replaced but will soon be ... and thus move into the RMWP
As the RMWP phases in over a period of time, the benefits should be expanded to cover those who work but do not initially qualify. This process needs to be designed into the scenario. More discussion and research required.

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In the scenario you described there would be jobs in that factory to service and monitor the robots, these are skilled positions that would require training. If robots eliminated the majority of non skilled labor we would also need education and training for the entire population as there would be very few non skilled positions available. I wonder how we could go about training the masses and keep the majority motivated and happy in their work?

I think the goal would be to encourage more and more part time employment is fields related to care and service of each other. I know this sounds utopian but let's look at it this way. If you could receive the RMWP for basic needs and work 3 days a week as a housekeeper or massage therapist for extra money, wouldn't you be inclined to spend that extra time and money getting a massage or having someone clean your own home while you go to the beach?

Motivation is an important discussion to have. Some have commented to me that this idea is crazy because everybody would just sit around, get fat and drink too much. Yes some would, and many do already in our society. The object of the exercise may be to steer the education system towards a scenario where motivation itself is rewarded, not solely with money or prizes, but with pride and self worth. Many of us (me included) are happy at our work and not motivated by accumulating more money than we need to obtain our goals and lifestyles. Perhaps we can brainstorm a reward system that encourages happiness in the workplace.

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The problem is how to still keep price competitive with places like Mexico, who have ‘human’ robots. That is more complex. Countries who want to sell us cheaper stuff will just ‘enslave’ robots.  Same old problem.

This one is complicated and hard to solve. It is already a reality so any progress we can make towards a solution is better than anything we are doing at present. Building walls and imposing tariffs is not a solution in my world. Without global participation in the evolution of society we will be hard pressed to make any headway. Global participation necessitates open discussion and joint participation. That means we need to look at how better to share the resources native to each country with each other to the benefit of all sides. What if we all decided that trade with each other could only be done on equal terms. And the measure of equal, instead of money, is man/robot hours (just throwing this out there). So, in this scenario, lets say one truckload of avocados from Mexico is worth 100 man/robot hours. Then a fair trade for that may be two truckloads of Georgia peaches because robots are used in the harvest. For sure, we need to investigate different ways of measuring the worth of trade if we are to get past the worship of cash and greed. I haven't answered this one but maybe someone reading this will put forward some thoughts.

Please take a moment and comment with your impressions. Could it work? I’d appreciate 2 points of view. Your first impressions and thoughts (positive or negative) followed by the opposite argument. If the first impression is positive (this could work because) then the second should be a rebuttal to the first (this will never work because). 

If you're new please have a look at this Introduction before commenting.





Tuesday, January 24, 2017

The Robot Minimum Wage Plan (RMWP)

The scenario I am trying to work out is one where people displaced by robots in the workplace are eligible to receive a minimum wage paid for by the robot that replaces him. Here is a short story to explain the concept.

I’m just a normal guy living a normal life in a normal city on planet earth in the 22nd century. They told us robots would take our jobs, and they have, thank god. Now I can spend the day in a meaningful way rather than drudge at life to eke out a living like my grandfather had to do.  He was a factory worker, but then again so am I.

Gramps worked 8-10 hours a day tightening wheel nuts in an auto factory and barely made enough to feed his family let alone buy a home or take a decent vacation. Then the robots came and took his job. Life went from bad to worse until his former employer opted into the Robot Minimum Wage Plan (RMWP) to save money on their robot budget and expand production.  

Now, the company hires robots from XYZ Robot Installation Company. They pay an hourly wage for each robot they hire depending on the complexity of the task the robot performs. The wage is fairly low to the company but since the robots work 24/7 it adds up. The robots pay income tax and the company pays payroll tax just like they always did. In addition though, a percentage of the wage goes into the RMWP.  

The RMWP collects money from all of the working robots and distributes it to humans as a minimum wage. As a descendent of a displaced worker, I am eligible to receive the wage. The goal is for everyone to eventually receive the wage and as more and more robots get to work that is coming about. 

While I could live on the wage at a subsistence level, I choose to work in the factory 3 days a week in order to improve my living conditions and lifestyle. Most human jobs are part time like mine so there are plenty of jobs to go around and with the RMWP the wages required are lower so companies and institutions tend to hire more people.

I’m happy because I work 3 days a week and live a comfortable life.

My friend and his wife choose to work 5 days a week and live in a nicer house and send their kids to private school. My spouse works at their daycare 3 days per week.

I have other highly successful friends who work in the robot industry … designing, building, installing and operating robots.

Nobody that I know works in a repetitive dirty job … the robots do that work.

People who are unable to work get their RMWP plus government disability assistance.

People who choose not to work get RMWP and can survive on that although we still need to work on trying to educate and motivate them. The abundance of clean part time jobs is helping with that.
The capitalist system still thrives. The best investments have turned out to be in Robot manufacturers, installers and servicing companies. Providing basic food and shelter has also proven to be a good investment since homelessness has all but disappeared.

The government is happy because they get taxes from robots.

Even bankers are happy because 100% of the population are consumers because they have money to spend.

Putting numbers together - this is a simple starting point open to modification and it represents only one segment … Industrial Robotics.

Average cost of an industrial robot system today is $100000 (Incl. installation & control system)
Robot wage - $25000 / yr
Taxes – 15% = $3750
RMWP contribution – 25% = $6250 ()
To Robot Integrator (Supply & install Robot) - 60% = $15000
RMWP payment required to support one adult = $10000


Please take a moment and comment with your impressions of this scenario. Could it work? I’d appreciate 2 points of view. Your first impressions and thoughts (positive or negative) followed by the opposite argument. If the first impression is positive (this could work because) then the second should be a rebuttal to the first (this will never work because). 

If you're new please have a look at this Introduction before commenting.

Monday, January 23, 2017

Introduction and some rules of the road

We need to have a discussion about the future of robotics and AI in the workplace. The use of robots and robotic systems will grow exponentially over the next decade. Robots will take our jobs and "move the cheese" for those seeking to replace those jobs. Simply referring to the old adages (Cars put blacksmiths out of work ... and they survived) will not suffice in modern times. The evolution is much more widespread. It will affect every industry at every level. 

My purpose here is to introduce some solutions for the future and ask others to comment and propose modifications so that we can brainstorm some answers.  I will take the comments and summarize our progress from time to time so we can continue to move forward. 

A few rules of the road please:

  • Brainstorming is only effective if participants put forth positive comments and propose ideas that build on (not tear down) the subject at hand.
  • If you disagree with an idea that is fine but please include an alternative solution to the subject rather than just negative comments.

That's it. Next post will put forth my initial ideas.